Sullivan & Cromwell partners Frank Aquila and Jeremy Kutner recently hosted a roundtable marking the launch of Global Legal Post’s Law Over Borders Global M&A Guide, bringing together contributing authors from 29 countries across Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and North America. The discussion focused on how artificial intelligence, regulatory shifts and geopolitical tensions are transforming cross-border M&A.

AI moves into everyday M&A practice

Aquila opened by noting the massive capital flowing into AI businesses, whether through AI M&A, infrastructure deals or AI-driven disruption. He highlighted three key trends: fewer but larger megadeals (e.g., the proposed $250bn takeover of xAI by SpaceX), lower transaction pricing structures, and deals involving real-world assets that AI cannot easily replicate, such as Barry Diller’s $18bn bid for MGM Resorts.

Kutner added that regulatory analysis now heavily influences whether megadeals can close, with each jurisdiction’s framework playing a decisive role.

Participants confirmed that AI has moved from experimentation to daily transactional practice. David Altunian of Loyens & Loeft (Netherlands) noted that AI-powered due diligence tools drastically reduce review time, generating first drafts of reports and routine agreements in a fraction of the previous time. However, Australian contributors cautioned that while insurers push for AI diligence, they advocate for human lawyers to perform the actual work.

Concerns emerged about junior lawyer development. Aquila observed that firms must rethink how associates gain experience as technology takes over routine tasks. Vivek Chandy of JSA (India) reported that tools like Harvey and Legora make associates more efficient without reducing headcount. Conversely, Kevin West of SkyLaw (Canada) pointed to a growing burden: clients arrive with AI-generated analyses that lawyers must review, often finding them poorly thought through. “Judgement and experience are essential,” he said.

Kutner encapsulated the challenge: “Information is becoming commoditised; judgement isn’t.”

Uncertain geopolitics and regulation

Geopolitical uncertainty dominated discussions. Lawyers from India noted heightened government sensitivity to geopolitics; Korean contributors cited Middle East instability affecting their economy; European lawyers pointed to protectionism and policy unpredictability. US tariff policies were a particular concern, with a Swedish participant stating, “Uncertainty is the biggest problem we have.”

Execution risk is now central, with deal teams striving to shorten the time between signing and completion and to anticipate obstacles earlier. FDI screening, antitrust reviews and national security considerations add layers of complexity. An Irish participant observed, “Governments are almost stakeholders in transactions now.” Multiple approvals across jurisdictions can extend timelines by months or years.

Reasons for cautious optimism

Despite challenges, participants expressed cautious optimism. Roque Bustamante of Flor Bustamante Pizarro & Hurtado (Ecuador) noted that traditional agricultural exports like shrimp and bananas are gaining value, driving M&A. Data centres, infrastructure, defence, energy and mining were flagged as opportunity areas. Canadian lawyers highlighted increased natural resource investment; Argentine and Ecuadorian participants favourable energy and mining policy developments. In Poland, private equity is returning to regulated industries including financial institutions and professional services.

The roundtable underscored that while AI, geopolitics and regulation complicate M&A, dealmakers are adapting, with judgement remaining irreplaceable.